The implications of the Tsunoda Lawson Red Bull swap

With Red Bull officially announcing the swap between Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda, let's examine how the deal could shake up Formula 1.

Yuki could finally make Red Bull his home

In the eyes of many, Yuki Tsunoda's long-term future has looked to be outside the Red Bull stable, with it never really looking like he was favoured in the team. When Pierre Gasly left AlphaTauri in 2022, most assumed Yuki would take up the role of team leader. However, Red Bull seemingly didn't trust him and brought in Nyck De Vries, with Helmut Marko saying it was expected that the rookie would be the team leader. 

Then, after dispatching Nyck, it seemed Yuki was in a direct head-to-head with Daniel Ricciardo for the second Red Bull seat; however, even after beating Daniel, Yuki wasn’t promoted and instead pitted against another driver for the seat, Liam Lawson. Then once again after beating Liam, Yuki was ignored, with Liam promoted to the senior side. 

But why did Red Bull continuously ignore him?

Well, initial impressions count, and in Yuki's case, it feels as though they’ve been holding him back ever since. There was a fair degree of hype around Yuki going into his first year in F1, as he was one of the standout performers in F2 in 2020. However, despite an impressive debut, his rookie season was one to forget for the most part. 

Yuki developed a reputation as unreliable due to his crash happiness, and too emotional due to his radio outbursts. And this, fairly or unfairly, stuck. There have always been suggestions of immaturity when it comes to Yuki and a lack of consistency, which seems to be in part why Red Bull has swayed away from him.

Along with this, there are his links to Honda. Although they initially helped him into the sport with opportunities throughout his junior career and eventual promotion to F1, they may have held him back a little at Red Bull. 

When Yuki was promoted to F1 and AlphaTauri, Red Bull was using Honda engines, and still does, however, it was revealed in 2023 that Red Bull would be partnering with Ford for their powertrain project going forward. Honda, on the other hand, will be powering Aston Martin from 2026 onwards. This added a feeling around Yuki that, as Honda had been so instrumental in his career so far, with them leaving Red Bull, so might he.

But anyway, Yuki finally has his shot, even though it almost feels like their last resort. 

If he can succeed in that second Red Bull seat, then he solves so many of Red Bull's problems and will surely be snapped up for the long term. Red Bull has been starved of a solid second-seat driver ever since Daniel Ricciardo. Yes, Checo did his job for the most part, but was never able to truly back up Max, especially when the competition caught up. If Yuki is that guy, then Red Bull will once again be able to take the fight in the constructors, and any doubts they had/have over Yuki will disappear, and he can become a staple in the team.

Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

What is success for Yuki? 

Well, for starters, he can't be any worse than Liam, so success for the moment will be performing at a similar or slightly higher level than he was at RB. Consistent Q3s and the occasional high-point scoring finishes. 

Eventually, of course, Yuki will have to get close to Max's level, but there is the blessing of being alongside Max that you’ll never be expected to be exactly at his level. For now, Yuki just has to do well enough to give himself time.

With Red Bull not likely to challenge for either the Drivers or Constructors championships this year, it’s arguably the best time for Yuki to come in. He’s replacing a driver who did terribly, lining up alongside someone he isn't expected to beat and driving for a team without much on the line. 

They won't be fighting for the constructors and probably won't have a driver in contention for the title unless Max performs miracles. The pressure is, of course, high, but compared to previous years, it feels a little less.

For Pierre, he was replacing a teammate who could get close to the level of Max, and for Alex, he was in his rookie year. For Yuki, none of those apply. There’ll be plenty of pressure on his first few races, especially his home race in Japan; however, after the first few, the pressure should ease. That is, of course, if he doesn't do quite as terribly as Liam.

Also, coming in mid-season could help Yuki. Liam and Pierre had full pre-seasons under their belt, which on the surface should have helped them embed themselves into the team and get comfortable during testing. However, it also meant that they had a lot of time to get sucked into the pressure and media attention. 

With Yuki, he’ll be hoping it fares similarly to how it did with Alex at the beginning. Alex came in on short notice and therefore didn’t have time to get in his head. He also already had 12 races in the season to build confidence and rhythm driving an F1 car. Yuki doesn’t quite have 12 races under his belt this season, but even two races should have gotten him in a rhythm and built his confidence.

It’s sometimes forgotten that Alex had a very respectable second half of the season with Red Bull in 2019, and if Yuki can put up similar performance levels, it will be deemed a success.

Ultimately, this is the opportunity Yuki has been waiting for, and if he succeeds, he can finally make Red Bull his home.

Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

How will Honda leaving Red Bull affect Yuki’s future?

Whilst it seemed as though Honda leaving Red Bull was one of the factors holding Yuki back, now that he’s in the seat, how will it affect him? Could it lead to an early exit regardless of performance?

Well, Honda has said they’ll support Tsunoda and their other drivers, even when they’re outside their own programme. Even with Red Bull not badging Honda engines, Yuki will continue to be affiliated with them, and if he can run at the front for Red Bull, it’s expected that they’ll continue to support him. In fact, The Race has suggested that Honda will help financially back Yuki’s move to Red Bull, something they wouldn’t do if they were planning on trying to see him move elsewhere in the future.

This is all well said and done, however, it remains to be seen how their stance would change if an Aston Martin seat became available and they were a front-running side. Having Yuki drive at the front in a Honda car would surely be their goal.

It must be noted, though, that Honda does not manage Yuki, and does not control his seat.

Lawson could find his feet again in an easier-to-drive car

Liam is returning to RB, the side which he drove his first 11 races in F1 for, and the side with which he impressed enough to get the Red Bull promotion without even completing a full season.

So with that being said, how likely is it that Liam will be able to find his feet again?

First of all, the car is undoubtedly going to be easier to pick up and drive. The fact that rookie Isack Hadjar has come in and found his feet pretty quickly shows the ease of the VCARB 02.

Max Verstappen even said Liam would fare better in the RB: “I think if you put Liam in the Racing Bulls car, he will go faster. I really think so. That car is easier to drive than ours.”

Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner backed this up, saying: “I think the Racing Bull is a more settled car in terms of it probably is a little more stable on entry.

“It probably has a bit more understeer in that car and therefore is easier to adapt to, but you can see the difference in pace in the cars on a longer stint.

“But I think in terms of finding the limit in a car that has inherent understeer, it is always going to be easier than finding the limit in a car that is a little more edgy.”

Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

Christian's comments about the VCARB suggest that it is easier to get the most out of in qualifying, however, the Red Bull is faster in race settings.

With qualifying being Liam's primary issue in his two races with Red Bull, this will come as a bonus, and if Liam can get a good qualifying under his belt around Suzuka, he should start to settle and get into a rhythm again.

But the biggest issue he is going to face is the mental side of it.

This is going to be horrible for Liam. After a lot of talk and confidence pre-season, Liam has ended up with egg on his face, and let's face it, he's going to be embarrassed.

How he bounces back from this is going to define his career, and he will know that. Not only does Liam have to shove aside the fact that he was dropped from Red Bull after the shortest stint ever, and any doubts about his ability that will creep in after that, but he will also know that if he doesn't hit the ground running with RB, his Formula 1 career could be over.

With rumours that Red Bull has been talking to Franco Colapinto over the seat, and Isack Hadjar settling in well, Liam has to perform.

Whether or not he can deal with that pressure, along with overcoming the embarrassment and doubts, could break him. But it could also make him.

If he CAN deal with it, then it truly is a testament to his character and arguably sets him up to have an even stronger career. Liam has to see this as an opportunity, rather than a backward step.

How difficult will it be for Lawson to get back in the Red Bull one day?

Even if Liam can find his feet again at RB, how likely is it that he will be able to do enough to get back in the Red Bull seat? Well, depending on how you look at it, his chances may still be pretty high.

There is a high chance Yuki may struggle in a similar vein to Liam, and if he does, it will ensure that Liam's stocks take as little damage as possible.

If Yuki doesn't dazzle, and Liam can put in high-quality performances at RB, with more experience under his belt, he may be able to convince the hierarchy he can be ready for another shot.

Of course, plenty will look at Pierre Gasly's demotion, and how he was never given a second chance, even after scoring 3 podiums and even a win for the junior side.

Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

But there are a couple of key differences between Liam and Pierre. The fact Liam was only given 2 races may help him in the long term, as he can argue he wasn't given enough time to settle in, and also there isn't a big sample size to measure his performances.

Pierre, on the other hand, was given 12 races, meaning Red Bull could look and say they gave him plenty of chances to get it right, unlike Liam. It also made the decision look more rational, whereas the decision to drop Liam looks pretty rash, and that could help him.

The other key difference is their experience going into the seat. Now, Pierre was by no means vastly experienced when he jumped into the Red Bull, however, he had 26 races under his belt.

This is in stark contrast to Liam, who at the time of his promotion had only completed 11 races, with over a year's gap between half of them. 

There was no right for Liam to step into that Red Bull and perform off the bat. Yes, he shouldn't have been Qualifying P20; however, with the difficulties other drivers have experienced with that car, is it any surprise?

There is, however, one more big point against Liam, that with Red Bull taking such drastic action and making such a big statement with this move, they are even less likely to take him back purely out of stubbornness. It would be highly embarrassing for Red Bull to once again go back on their decision.

But overall, it seems as though if Liam can perform at a high level with RB and gain more experience, a full season's worth, then he shouldn't give up hope of returning to the Red Bull senior team.

Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

How does it affect Max's future on the team?

Yuki will be Max's fifth teammate at Red Bull since the departure of Daniel Ricciardo in 2018, and Max reportedly told Red Bull not to replace Lawson. Dutch outlet De Telegraaf has said Max is unhappy with the decision, and Max was quick to jump to Liam’s defence in China.

Whilst it is unlikely to have a big impact on Max, it is yet another instance where Red Bull and Max seem to be growing apart.

As for the team dynamic, whilst Max will remain the team leader, the whole debacle could pave the way for Red Bull to sway away from so heavily prioritising Max. With four teammates being unable to adapt to the needs of the car, and with Red Bull dropping down the pecking order from a constructor's view, Red Bull may look to prioritise developing the car to be easier to drive. 

This may seem strange as Max is the best driver in the sport and so on the face of it, of course, you would develop around him, however, if it costs them in the constructors, as it did last year, then going down a different route could be beneficial for the team as a whole. After all, the constructors is where the money is.

This could cost Max chances at the driver's title, potentially making him more likely to leave to a side that would fully focus the efforts of their car around him.

However, to caveat that, Red Bull is in the sport for marketing reasons, and therefore having a car at the front of the grid, and winning races, is more beneficial to them than potentially a few more dollars in the constructors' battle. Even though they would of course rather have two Red Bull cars at the front, one is potentially better than none, even for a few more dollars.

What if it goes wrong?

Of course, we have to explore the possibility that it could go horribly wrong. After all, it's not a guarantee that Tsunoda will perform right away, otherwise, Red Bull would have picked him over Lawson originally. 

The Red Bull second seat has proven to be too much for Pierre, Alex, and Checo, and they have all arguably proven more in the sport than Yuki. Therefore, it isn't unrealistic to suggest Yuki might not succeed.

Getty Images / Red Bull Content Pool

So what does happen if Tsunoda falls flat like those before him? 

Well, from Tsunoda's point of view, the move should hold little risk of derailing his career too much. He has done more than enough at RB/AlphaTauri to prove he would be an asset to other teams going forward, so even if he struggles, he should be okay for a seat elsewhere.

You would have to think that, unlike Lawson, Red Bull would not put him back at RB, as, unlike Liam, Yuki is already an experienced driver, and if he fails, then it just shows he won't ever suit the Red Bull and therefore there’s no point in keeping him around.

Aston Martin's links with Honda have put Yuki in the conversation to replace Alonso, and arguably that move could become more likely. That might sound strange, however, if Yuki does struggle, then the pathway opens for the move. Other teams on the radar of Yuki will be Cadillac, who need two new drivers, Audi, potentially as an alternative to Hulkenberg, or Alpine, who still seem to be unconvinced by Doohan. Either way, there will be suitors for Yuki.

As for Red Bull, if Yuki struggles just as much as Liam, then it puts them in an incredibly difficult position. The signing of a driver from outside their current talent pool would then appear the most likely outcome, with Carlos Sainz surely being the favourite. It would appear as though Red Bull made a mistake in not signing the Spaniard last year when he was freely available.

Elsewhere, Alex Albon's stock couldn't be higher at the moment, and there were already murmurs of a return to Red Bull for Alex last year. Another driver who could potentially be on the team's radar would be Pierre Gasly, who may be regretting leaving the stable at the end of 2022, as he surely would have been promoted back into the Red Bull seat had he stayed following Perez's problems. He may have burned a few too many bridges during his time with the side, so that move would look unlikely. 

Ultimately, if it does go wrong with Yuki, Red Bull would have to turn to experience for that second seat, at least for the time being, as even though in the long run it didn't work out with Perez, his first couple of years were satisfactory enough for what Red Bull needed.

✍️ Sebastian Alston @Seb_Alston on X

Yuki Tsunoda will make his Red Bull debut at his home Japanese GP, and you can follow it all from ShefF1.co.uk, our Instagram @sheff1podcast, and our Twitter/X @F1Shef.